University of Colorado at Boulder researchers are now forecasting a 92 percent chance that the 2007 September minimum extent of sea ice across the Arctic region will set an all-time record low.
CU-Boulder researchers are monitoring dwindling sea ice in the Arctic. (Credit: Photo by James Maslanik, CU-Boulder)
The researchers, who forecast in April a 33 percent chance the September minimum of sea ice would set a new record, dramatically revised their prediction following a rapid disintegration of sea ice during July, said Research Associate Sheldon Drobot of CU-Boulder's Colorado Center for Astrodynamics.
"During the first week in July, the Arctic sea ice started to disappear at rates we had never seen before," said Drobot, who leads CCAR's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group in CU-Boulder's aerospace engineering sciences department.
"We have been seeing a sharp decline in thicker, multi-year ice that has survived more than one melt season," said CCAR Research Associate James Maslanik. "This has been replaced in many areas by a thin, first-year layer of ice as well as by younger, thinner types of multi-year ice. The thinner ice just does not have the mass to withstand the effects of warming climate."
Saturday, August 18, 2007